Is Trump doomed?
By Tu Yun
During our visit to the U.S. last September as a Chinese journalist delegation, almost all the academics we spoke to were confidently speculating that President Donald Trump had a strong chance of being re-elected.
President Donald Trump walks from the White House through Lafayette Park for a photo op in front of St. John's Church on June 1, 2020, in Washington, D.C. [Photo: AP]
The outlook still seemed positive for Trump by April even after his administration failed to execute a sufficient response plan to the coronavirus pandemic. He deflected criticism thanks to scapegoats, including China, the World Health Organization and even the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The economy is a key factor in U.S. presidential elections, with over half of American households having an investment in the stock market. So long as the unemployment rate, which dropped in February to its lowest level in half a century, wouldn't soar by 10 percent or more over the next few months and the economic outlook would remain stable, the scales of the election still seemed to tilt toward Trump.
But then the protests against the death of George Floyd began. Trump's belated response and his controversial hawkish tweets, such as "when the looting starts, the shooting starts", provoked criticism from all quarters, including African Americans, with whom Trump has spent much time and money trying to court.
The situation is complicated further by the fact that the U.S. has recorded the world's highest number of coronavirus fatalities, among which black people were the hardest hit, as well as the fact that the jobless rate more than tripled in April to nearly 15 percent.
A Washington Post/ABC News poll released on Sunday showed Trump's approval rating had slipped back into negative territory: 45-53 percent among all Americans, with a seven-point rise in disapproval since late March. His personal favorability is net -13. FiveThirtyEight, a website that compiles national polls into a statistical average, also found similar findings in its recent survey.
President Donald Trump at a news conference in the Rose Garden of the White House, during which he refrains from imposing new tariffs or sanctions against China, on May 29, 2020. [Photo: AP]
With the coronavirus pandemic expected to impact more people in the country and the protests set to cause further disruptions to society, the economy and possibly push unemployment to 20 percent, Trump's re-election hope seems increasingly grim.
However, there is still one lifeline open to the US economy, as well as to the flailing president: China!
Trump already did himself a favor by not threatening to further damage its trade ties with China. Despite the Hawkish style of his news conference on China last Friday, American investors were relieved to learn that Washington had refrained from laying out any new tariffs and therefore their wealth would not have to shrink further during this particularly difficult year.
As one of the first countries to bring the coronavirus outbreak under control and a global economic engine for years, China is a crucial force in spearheading the global economic recovery. It would be unwise for the U.S. not to embrace this reality and see China as an ally, even just for an interim period, to help revive its own economy.
The Trump administration's latest move has been to announce a suspension of all flights from China starting June 16th. What it should be doing instead is “taking the knee off the neck” of bilateral economic ties, by facilitating travel and transportation to attract the strongest post-pandemic Chinese buyers, and removing all other potential obstacles to the implementation of its stage one agreement with China.
Trump has yet to bring the economy back on track and deliver on his promise to help his base including American farmers prosper. For his administration, it's time to play the "China card" again. Only this time, it should play it in a constructive way.
Note: Tu Yun is an editor at China Plus and CRI's former correspondent in London. The article reflects the author's own views.